Daniel Markey, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote an interesting piece in Foreign Policy magazine called “Zardari’s War.” Markey sets forth a clear analysis of the current situation in Pakistan and where we could be heading if the political and domestic unrest continues.
This time, it wasn’t Islamist militants or al Qaeda stirring up trouble. Rather, Pakistan’s government — elected in the wake of former President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation — has gone to war with itself.
The country’s Supreme Court is once again implicated in the action, having disqualified from office the leaders of Pakistan’s main opposition party: former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother, the sitting chief minister of Punjab. Soon after the court’s decision, President Asif Ali Zardari imposed governor’s rule, effectively placing his own man in charge of his country’s most populous and politically dominant province.
In response, the Sharif brothers accused Zardari of manipulating the court and have vowed to take their case to the streets. This is no idle threat. According to public opinion surveys, Sharif is now Pakistan’s most popular politician. His party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), might well succeed in mobilizing violent street rallies that would test the capacity of state security and could even deliver a deathblow to the coalition government in Islamabad.
In short, Pakistan’s major political leaders are now in a no-holds-barred contest for political power. The time for unity and compromise appears to have passed; the era of stable democratic governance (and a loyal opposition) was fleeting.
Markey’s question of where this puts the Obama administration in terms of the US led War on Terror reveals startling options being considered by the powers that be in Washington. While Pakistan’s newspapers have been full of articles about the hustle and bustle of US and UK diplomats between President’s House, Prime Minister House and Raiwind trying to keep the political battle that has broken out between the Sharif led PML-N and Zardari’s PPP, but Washington is already considering its options if things spin out of control in Pakistan.
But three other, less pleasant outcomes are now more likely. First, Zardari could succeed in quelling Sharif’s protests, effectively sidelining his primary opponent and consolidating his own national standing. Second, Sharif could leverage street protests and existing cleavages within Zardari’s party to claw his way to power. Third, destabilizing violence and prolonged political uncertainty could convince the Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to reassert control and sideline both civilian contenders. Read the rest of this entry »
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